Local elections have historically drawn only 15–27% of registered voters. In cities that moved their elections onto federal election dates, turnout has tripled or quadrupled overnight — sometimes on the same ballot where turnout in the same city was under 15% the previous cycle. A structural reform, not a change in civic culture, is responsible for most of the rise.
According to research by Professor Zoltan Hajnal at the University of California San Diego, the share of cities holding mayoral elections in even-numbered November years has more than doubled — from roughly 15 percent to over 30 percent of cities nationwide. Cities that moved from off-cycle odd-year elections to on-cycle even-year dates saw immediate, dramatic increases in turnout. Hajnal’s 2025 analysis of the 50 largest U.S. cities found that San Francisco’s mayoral race — previously drawing an average of 164,000 voters across six off-year elections — drew 412,000 voters when the race moved to the November 2024 ballot. Nearly a three-fold increase, in the same city, for the same office. The change was the date.
📊 Local Election Turnout — Key Numbers – 26%
Avg. turnout in off-cycle mayoral elections — registered voter share (Hajnal UCSD) – 3×
Turnout increase in San Francisco mayoral race after shift to November 2024 ballot – 5–10%
Average turnout in off-cycle school board elections — NSBA national estimate – 100+
Cities that have voluntarily moved to on-cycle election dates since 2015
Why Off-Cycle Elections Produce Low Turnout
The mechanism is simple. When a local election is held on a separate Tuesday in May of an odd year, voters must independently learn the date, find their polling place, and make a separate trip to the polls for a race generating almost no media coverage. Research from the University of Chicago’s Center for Effective Government describes off-cycle local elections as generating “abysmal turnout,” while on-cycle elections yield turnout comparable to state and federal races. When a local election shares a ballot with a presidential contest, voters already at the polls simply complete the rest. The marginal cost of voting locally drops to near zero.
The consequences extend beyond numbers. The Effective Government Center found that off-cycle local voters are older, whiter, and more affluent than the broader community. School board elections see teachers vote at roughly seven times the rate of ordinary residents — not from unusual civic virtue, but because they have a direct material stake. These skews mean elected local officials in low-turnout elections often represent a narrow slice of their nominal constituency.
States That Have Moved to On-Cycle Elections
| State | Year of Law | What Changed | Documented Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| California | 2015 | State law mandated on-cycle dates for low-turnout cities | Dramatic turnout increases; Latino representation on city councils grew, closing proportional gaps |
| Arizona | 2018 | Similar mandate for consolidated local elections | Increased turnout; more representative electorate by age and race |
| Nevada | 2019 | Local elections moved to coincide with state/federal cycles | Turnout increased in cities that shifted dates |
| Virginia | 2022 | Local elections moved to November even-year dates | Local races now draw significantly larger electorates |
| New York | 2023 | Law mandating on-cycle county and town elections statewide | Implementation ongoing — full effect expected 2025–26 |
Polarization’s Role — and Its Limits
Election timing accounts for the most measurable and consistent increases in local turnout. But polarization also plays a role. States United Democracy Center’s September 2025 analysis found that voters are increasingly motivated to ensure their preferred candidates are represented at every level of government. Ballot roll-off — voters casting a presidential ballot but leaving local races blank — fell from an average of 4 percent between 2000 and 2012 to less than 1 percent in 2024.
“Voters in local democracy are now younger, more racially diverse, and more economically diverse than they were two decades ago.”
— Professor Zoltan Hajnal, UC San Diego / Yankelovich Center for Social Science Research, 2025
The stakes are also more visible than before. School board decisions on curriculum, city council decisions on zoning and policing, and county decisions on housing all now generate national media coverage. That visibility changes voter assessments of whether local elections are worth the trip. Nonprofit VOTE noted in November 2025 that the closeness of local races — decided by dozens of votes rather than thousands — has itself become a mobilisation message. A single vote in a mayoral race is worth considerably more than a single vote in a presidential contest.
Primary Sources
- Even Year Elections: The Case for Moving Local Elections to November — Prof. Zoltan Hajnal, UC San Diego
- Big Cities — Tiny Votes: America’s Urban Voter Turnout — Yankelovich Center, UCSD (2025)
- The Timing of Local Elections — Center for Effective Government, University of Chicago
- Voter Turnout Remained High in Key States in 2024 — States United Democracy Center (Sept. 2025)
- Local Elections: Small Margins, Big Consequences — Nonprofit VOTE (Nov. 2025)